Dynamic analysis and forecast of water resources ecological footprint in China

Ecological footprint model offers a new method for evaluating the sustainable utilization of water resources quantitatively.Based on the calculating models of water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity,this paper made an evaluation on the sustainable utilization of water resources in China from 1949 to 2007 and then used Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) model to make a profound analysis on the changing trend of water resources ecological footprint.The result showed that water resources ecological carrying capacity per capita was decreasing,while there was an obvious increase in water resources ecological footprint per capita in China between 1949 and 2007.When the water resources ecological footprint surpassed ecological carrying capacity gradually,water resources ecological deficit emerged and increased annually,which indicated that the use of water resources in China was in an unsafe state.The ARIMA model was applied to predict the water resources ecological footprint per capita in China from 2008 to 2012,the results showed water resources ecological footprint per capita would keep on increasing,and thus the state of water crisis would be increasingly serious.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the sustainable utilization of water resources accordingly.