Nomination Choices: Caucus and Primary Outcomes, 1976-88

Primaries and caucuses now determine the Democratic and Republican parties' presidential nominations. While several political scientists have investigated the voting behavior of individual primary voters (Abramson et al. 1992; Bartels 1988; Geer 1989; Keeter and Zukin 1983; Marshall 1984; Norrander 1986, 1992; Wattier 1983a, 1983b; Williams et al. 1976), aggregate results of primaries and caucuses have scarcely been studied. Primary and caucus outcomes foster publicity, contributions, and, perhaps, voter support for some candidates in what is commonly called momentum, while forcing other candidates from the field. Aggregate vote totals allocate convention delegates for each state, and delegate totals ultimately decide the nominations. While individual decisions make up aggregate outcomes, we are left to make inferential leaps from studies of individual voters when what we really need to understand is the collective outcome. In this vein, presidential primary researchers need to follow the lead of congressional scholars who find it necessary to understand both the aggregate dynamics of and the individual voting behavior that underlie the loss of seats by the presidential party in offyear congressional elections. Flaws in three previously published aggregate analyses of presidential primary and caucus returns hamper us in our ultimate goal of making generalizations about the outcomes of these vital contests. Two of the works ignore caucuses (Bartels 1988; Grush 1980); two analyze only candidates from one party in one election year (Grush 1980; Parent, Jillson, and Weber 1987); and one ignores the dynamic elements of nomination contests (Parent, Jillson, and Weber 1987).