Shaping a Secure Future -- An Assessment of U.S.-China Policy

The development and maintenance of an amicable U.S.-China relationship in the next 5 to 10 years is critical to U.S. national security. U.S. policies toward China will have a significant influence on future U.S. national military strategy. The predominant view expressed by defense planners and other Bush administration strategists is that China may be our next near-peer military confrontation. Alternatively, if China were to become our strategic partner rather than our strategic competitor, the United States might be able to shape its defense structure for 21st century threats without engaging in an arms race with China. This project analyzes two critical issues facing the United States' relationship with China -- the Taiwan issue and China's military modernization initiatives -- and presents alternative U.S. policy options regarding these issues. The author concludes that a change in policy direction may help to steer the United States away from a path of military confrontation with China.