Research on the Transfer Volume Forecasting Method Based on Time-Phase for Integrated Passenger Transport Hub

Forecasting the transfer volume based on time-phase can provide a scientific basis for operation scheduling of different traffic modes. It can improve the coordination of transit of different traffic modes. This paper is based on the information collection of the passengers' transfer behavior in Liaoyang Passenger Transport Hub and analyzes the differences of the changes of passengers' transfer behavior according to the time-phase. It sets the transfer behavior between every two traffic modes as the objective and builds the Logit model of the passengers' transfer distribution. The paper analyzes the influencing factors of passengers' transfer decisions in different time-phases based on the results of parameter calibration. This research combines the theory with the passengers' actual behavior and provides a new way of analyzing the transfer volume forecasting.