2014土木学会論文集B2(海岸工学)Open access

Forecast and Hindcast of Storm Surge Modeling by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013

Nobuhito Mori, Yoko SHIBUTANI, Tetsuya Takemi, Sooyoul Kim, Tomohiro YASUDA, Tatsuya Niwa, Daiki TSUJIO, Hajime MASE

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Abstract

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines and nearby areas in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. A series of numerical analyses indicated that the maximum storm surge level was 5-6 m in Tacloban. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the storm surge disaster in Leyte Gulf. Based on the comparisons of forecasts and hindcasts, it was difficult to predict the storm surge a few days in advance, quantitatively.

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Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines and nearby areas in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. A series of numerical analyses indicated that the maximum storm surge level was 5-6 m in Tacloban. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the storm surge disaster in Leyte Gulf. Based on the comparisons of forecasts and hindcasts, it was difficult to predict the storm surge a few days in advance, quantitatively.

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Available abstract

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines and nearby areas in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. A series of numerical analyses indicated that the maximum storm surge level was 5-6 m in Tacloban. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the storm surge disaster in Leyte Gulf. Based on the comparisons of forecasts and hindcasts, it was difficult to predict the storm surge a few days in advance, quantitatively.

Key concepts: Storm surge, Typhoon, Hindcast, Tropical cyclone scales, Tropical cyclone, Surge, Storm, Climatology

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