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A STUDY ON PROBABILITY RUN-OFF FORECASTING METHOD FOR FLOOD CONTROL USING RADAR RAIN GAUGE

Yoshiyuki KANBAYASHI

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Abstract

Only the average precipitation in a few hours preceding to the forecast usually has been used as input data for flood forecasting models. However, this method does not correctly evaluate the difference between expected value and actual observed value of discharge.This paper proposes a method which evaluates the discharge and the water level in probability, by studying the forecast rainfalls probability distribution by means of Radar Rain Gauge (including Digitized Weather Radar) precipitation forecast methods, and by inputting the result into the run-off models as a group of forecast rainfalls.The examination on the application led to the coviction that this new method can bring about practical and useful information.

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What this paper is about

Only the average precipitation in a few hours preceding to the forecast usually has been used as input data for flood forecasting models. However, this method does not correctly evaluate the difference between expected value and actual observed value of discharge.This paper proposes a method which evaluates the discharge and the water level in probability, by studying the forecast rainfalls probability distribution by means of Radar Rain Gauge (including Digitized Weather Radar) precipitation forecast methods, and by inputting the result into the run-off models as a group of forecast rainfalls.The examination on the application led to the coviction that this new method can bring about practical and useful information.

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Available abstract

Only the average precipitation in a few hours preceding to the forecast usually has been used as input data for flood forecasting models. However, this method does not correctly evaluate the difference between expected value and actual observed value of discharge.This paper proposes a method which evaluates the discharge and the water level in probability, by studying the forecast rainfalls probability distribution by means of Radar Rain Gauge (including Digitized Weather Radar) precipitation forecast methods, and by inputting the result into the run-off models as a group of forecast rainfalls.The examination on the application led to the coviction that this new method can bring about practical and useful information.

Key concepts: Quantitative precipitation forecast, Rain gauge, Radar, Precipitation, Meteorology, Environmental science, Flood myth, Flood forecasting

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