Beyond the Cold War—Again: 1955 and the 1990s

Month after month, high and low, turbulence continues to rock Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Early developments were already striking: the battered Berlin wall, a playwright president in Prague, even a MacDonald's in Moscow. But initial fissures have gaped ever wider, and more have appeared. Who can yet measure the profound significance of German reunification, conflagration in Yugoslavia, and a crumbled USSR? The news stories we have been devouring have been exciting, but more than a little disorienting as well. Consider the sorry state of predictions over the last three years. How many genuinely expert policy analysts have been left either in stunned surprise or scurrying to reshape embarrassingly categorical statements about what could or could not possibly happen in Berlin or Bucharest or Moscow? Consider even the puzzlement of an average worldwatcher checking the atlas for the precise location of a Talinn or a Moldavia risen to sudden new significance. Memories, traditional perceptions (and cliches), often astute antennae, have been whiplashed in the ferment. Perhaps it is a good time to remind ourselves of the value of the past as a guide to the future. As familiar landmarks crumble or shift, can history yield up new ones to help us get our bearings? Yes. This is an old, old homily, of course, consistently if often unconsciously applied by almost everyone when coping with the vicissitudes of both private and public life. But it is also a homily that requires regular relearning and refinement. Another concerted effort seems particularly