A Statistical Study on the Relationship between Typhoon Maximum Potential Intensity and Actual Intensity

Using a steady-state axis-symmetric typhoon model, the maximum potential intensity of typhoon is evaluated in this study to reveal a relationship with the actual typhoon intensity during its mature stage. The steady-state typhoon model requires a set of environmental parameters (e.g. temperature, relative humidity, geopotential, and sea surface temperature) which can be implemented from global atmospheric and ocean analyses, and provides us with the mature typhoon structure, as well as the maximum potential intensity (e.g. maximum sustained wind and minimum central pressure) at each grid point. Statistical analyses during 20 years lead to a conclusion that typhoons which travel longer over the warm ocean before are likely to reach levels of the maximum potential intensity.