Research on Regional Logistics Input-Output Co-Integration Relationship and Cause and Effect Interaction Mechanism

Logistics is the arteries of the national economic development and basic industry, but also is the accelerator of the national economic development, it is very important to study the relationship between logistics input and output to impel the development of logistics and economy. Based on the lots of reading relevant documents, the author took logistics investment, logistics network mileage and logistics employees represent the logistics industry input level, took logistics industry product value represent logistics output level as studying objects, it used unit root test, Granger causality test, co-integration test, ECM methods and so on, to analyze empirically the relationship between logistics input and output in Jilin province. The results show that the four time series (logistics industry investment, logistics networks mileage, logistics employees and logistics industry value) are the first-order single whole time series, which indicates that the four factors are subject to the pre-affected, and has a strong inertia. There is a one-way causal relationship between logistics industry value and the logistics industry investment or logistics employees; logistics output in Jilin Province is the Granger reason of logistics industry investment and logistics employees. In a long run, there exists balanced and stable relationship between the logistics input and output, in a short run, logistics inputs also have a positive impact on output, and the deviation of the long-run balanced value is corrected at the rate 28.67%. From the overall analysis, there does not form a good interactive mechanism between the logistics industry inputs and outputs in Jilin Province.