Intensity Predictions on the 2004 Pacific Typhoons Using 2-D and 3-D Typhoon Models

In this study, a total of 29 typhoons occurring in the 2004 Pacific typhoon season are simulated using an axisymmetric 2-D typhoon model (2DTYM) and a regional 3-D typhoon model (3DTYM). 2DTYM is intended to estimate the axisymmetric typhoon structure and its intensity constrained by typhoon's environmental parameters. 3DTYM is developed to evaluate the full structure of a typhoon from the genesis stage to the decaying stage, considering important typhoon-ocean interactions. Comparisons of these results simulated by both the models indicate that 3DTYM is able to predict the realistic typhoon intensity more accurately than 2DTYM, because 3DTYM can capture the internal asymmetric structure in a typhoon, which is responsible for typhoon intensity change especially during the decaying stage.