A novel concept and assessment method for trustworthiness of prognostics

The existence of the unavoidable uncertainties has a great effect on the prognostics accuracy and performance. However, their influences are rarely taken into account in the current prognostics performance evaluation. Consequently, the validity and/or trustiness degree of prognostics and health management system has not been comprehensively evaluated or measured. Considering the definition of prognostics performance and the characteristics of uncertainties, four prognostics performance metrics and two kinds of quantitative evaluation methods are proposed. On the basis of prognostics performance definition, a novel trustworthiness of prognostics concept is presented. Then, three kinds of assessment methods for trustworthiness of prognostics are provided. Finally, a case study has been carried out on the aviation hydraulic pump for verification purposes, in which the oil-return flow is monitored for predicting the degradation of the pump. The systematic application of trustworthiness of prognostics assessment is implemented based on the back propagation neural network prognostics algorithm. The results show that the proposed trustworthiness of prognostics concept and assessment methods can contribute to the systematic and comprehensive understanding of the performance of prognostics and health management system.