2016•London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science)Open access

Donald Trump’s victories show that authoritarian voters are now in control of the Republican nomination process

Matthew C. MacWilliams

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Abstract

Up to now, many political scientists and commentators have argued that support for Donald Trump is ‘capped’, given that he and Senator Ted Cruz (TX) are competing for the same pool of antiestablishment voters. Using new survey data from South Carolina Republican voters, Matthew C. MacWilliams finds that, along with concerns about terrorism, authoritarianism is a major predictor of people’s support for Donald Trump, and not a predictor of support for Ted Cruz. With these findings in mind, he argues that so long as people are concerned about outside threats – concerns which Trump is stoking – his support will continue to grow.

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Up to now, many political scientists and commentators have argued that support for Donald Trump is ‘capped’, given that he and Senator Ted Cruz (TX) are competing for the same pool of antiestablishment voters. Using new survey data from South Carolina Republican voters, Matthew C. MacWilliams finds that, along with concerns about terrorism, authoritarianism is a major predictor of people’s support for Donald Trump, and not a predictor of support for Ted Cruz. With these findings in mind, he argues that so long as people are concerned about outside threats – concerns which Trump is stoking – his support will continue to grow.

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Available abstract

Up to now, many political scientists and commentators have argued that support for Donald Trump is ‘capped’, given that he and Senator Ted Cruz (TX) are competing for the same pool of antiestablishment voters. Using new survey data from South Carolina Republican voters, Matthew C. MacWilliams finds that, along with concerns about terrorism, authoritarianism is a major predictor of people’s support for Donald Trump, and not a predictor of support for Ted Cruz. With these findings in mind, he argues that so long as people are concerned about outside threats – concerns which Trump is stoking – his support will continue to grow.

Key concepts: Nomination, Authoritarianism, Political science, Politics, Terrorism, Political economy, Law, Democracy

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