Are immigrants substitutes for births

This paper investigates the extent to which population recruitment through migration serves as a substitute for recruitment through fertility. It 1st considers the Economic Communitys overall population size and then examines age-structure problems particularly the potential role of immigration as a counter to population aging. The results of the study indicate that immigration can prevent an overall population decline during the 1st half of the 21st century but only if year after year record numbers of immigrants are allowed in. The order of magnitude required is about 400000 women per year (about 1 million persons of both sexes) or more than 20% of the current female birth stream. If fertility of migrants drops to replacement level the migration stream has to be hiked up to about 40% of the annual birth stream to compensate. Such large immigration figures essentially reflect the fact that the current fertility levels of Economic Community nationals are extremely low; for practical purposes they are out of the reach of compensation through migration. The goal of a long-term stationary population size cannot reasonably be maintained unless European fertility can be raised to the replacement levels of 2.07 children per woman. Immigration is even less able to serve as a counterbalance to the effects of very low fertility. Even the record number of immigrants used in these simulations fails to prevent aging. The multiethnic society is already a reality in many cities of northwestern Europe. Since these cities are struggling with integration and adaptation processes for all parties concerned and since the migrant baby boom in them will soon reach the age of entering into the labor force the end of concern over their socioeconomic integration is not in sight. These cities cannot be expected to absorb more than relatively modest contingents of developing country immigrants in the coming years not the bulk of the large streams that would be required to keep national populations at a long-term stationary level. This paper deals far more extensively with the formal demographic aspects than with the economic and social ones. The smooth development of a multi-ethnic society in Western Europe is better served by smaller contingents of developing country-immigrants and at least a partial recovery of native fertility than by continued extremely low native fertility offset by a very large migration stream.