Placating ‘worried nationalists’ may be key to the pro-EU side winning a referendum on the UK’s relationship with Europe

The chances of a referendum being held on the UK’s membership of the European Union have increased significantly in recent months. Based on a study for the European Council on Foreign Relations, Peter Kellner, President of the polling organisation YouGov, assesses how a referendum on EU membership might play out in practice. A large percentage of the UK population – which he terms ‘worried nationalists’ – are likely to oppose EU membership on the basis of general values concerning Britain’s place in the world. Encouraging these individuals to think more pragmatically about the UK’s relationship with Europe would likely be crucial for the pro-EU campaign.