[Estimation of age-specific fertility rates based on population censuses].

The aim of this work is to estimate the age specific fertility rates for inter-census periods by using the data 1970-1975-1980 Population Census. In order to make an estimate the technique based on the increase in the mean number of children born alive related to each age group is used. The estimated results correspond to the 2 inter-census periods (approximately 1973-78). For this reason the results based on only the fertility data of Population Census and the surveys held by HIPS in 1973-78, respectively, are argued. When the estimated fertility figures based on the data for the ever-married women between 15-49 age groups (tables 1-3), and the total number of women in these age groups (tables 4-6), related to the 1970-80 interval for inter-census periods, are compared within themselves and with each other, some points come into question that need to be taken into consideration. One of the points in question is the estimates related to 1975-80 period. Obviously, the fertility estimates based on the married women are higher than the estimates based on total number of women, because the number of married women years lived is higher. If one evaluates the estimated results within a fertility pattern, it could be said that the total fertility rate for 1975-80 (6.40) periods is a high estimate. The 2nd point to be questioned is that whether the estimated increase in the total marital fertility rate is an actual increase or not for 1970-75 and 1975-80 periods, because the regional and national surveys held in these periods show a decrease in the fertility rates. Also the estimates of the multiple reverse projection techniques based on Population Census indicate that the fertility rates decreased in time and reached its lowest rate (5.05) for the 1970-75 period. When working on Population Census, the data either related to the past year or related to the past 5 years are to be consistent if there hasn't been a great change in fertility. Therefore, a cautious data clearing process has to be undertaken to eliminate all research errors. As an example, one can see from the 1980 population data that 1859 of ever-married women have 4, 498 have 5, 123 have 6, and 27 have 7 living children. In the author's opinion the underclearing of the data is the cause for these figures. On the other hand, if the fertility figures of ever-married women related to the last 5 years are evaluated according to their permanent residences 5 years before the census date, some errors of estimation may be prevented. As expected, if this data is evaluated within the context of the widely approved urban-rural definition, it will be of great value for the planning and implementing organizations.