2003•地震学报：英文版Requires access
Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction
刘蒲雄, 郑大林, 车时, 潘怀文, 刘桂萍, 杨立明
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Abstract
A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2(N and 90.90E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.