Growth means doom.
Donald W. Mann
Abstract
Donald W. Mann
Abstract
A growing consensus exists that further population growth in this already vastly overpopulated world threatens to destroy the dream of a good life for all. At the beginning of the 20th century world population was about 1.6 billion. World population is increasing by that number every 15-20 years. There are currently 4.6 billion people on earth and it is projected that there will be 6 billion by the end of the century and 10-15 billion before the population possibly levels off sometime in the next 100 years. In the US the population continues to grow because of the preponderance of young people in the country as a result of the baby boom. If the current rate of 1.8 could be maintained long enough the US population would eventually stabilize and begin a very slow decline. This path to a smaller popultion would require centuries to realize a substantial reduction of numbers. Immigration into the US must be markedly curtailed or population growth will never end even with such a fertility pattern. Negative Population Growth (NPG) recommends a somewhat faster transition to optimum population size. Such a path would entail gradually lowering the total fertility rate to 1.0 and maintaining it at that low level for only a decade. At that time it could be allowed to increase slowly over a 20-year period to the longterm replacement rate of 2.1 and then be carefully maintained at that rate thereafter. If the fertility rate followed such a path after about 10 years the US population would stop growing (immigration excepted) and start a slow decline. 100 years later there would be about 100 million Americans. NPG opposes any compulsory measures or mandatory limitation of family size. The organization believes that the recommended reduction in numbers could be realized voluntarily with the aid of tax incentives and disincentives to encourage couples to have small families.
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A growing consensus exists that further population growth in this already vastly overpopulated world threatens to destroy the dream of a good life for all. At the beginning of the 20th century world population was about 1.6 billion. World population is increasing by that number every 15-20 years. There are currently 4.6 billion people on earth and it is projected that there will be 6 billion by the end of the century and 10-15 billion before the population possibly levels off sometime in the next 100 years. In the US the population continues to grow because of the preponderance of young people in the country as a result of the baby boom. If the current rate of 1.8 could be maintained long enough the US population would eventually stabilize and begin a very slow decline. This path to a smaller popultion would require centuries to realize a substantial reduction of numbers. Immigration into the US must be markedly curtailed or population growth will never end even with such a fertility pattern. Negative Population Growth (NPG) recommends a somewhat faster transition to optimum population size. Such a path would entail gradually lowering the total fertility rate to 1.0 and maintaining it at that low level for only a decade. At that time it could be allowed to increase slowly over a 20-year period to the longterm replacement rate of 2.1 and then be carefully maintained at that rate thereafter. If the fertility rate followed such a path after about 10 years the US population would stop growing (immigration excepted) and start a slow decline. 100 years later there would be about 100 million Americans. NPG opposes any compulsory measures or mandatory limitation of family size. The organization believes that the recommended reduction in numbers could be realized voluntarily with the aid of tax incentives and disincentives to encourage couples to have small families.
Key concepts: Population, Baby boom, Population momentum, Population growth, Fertility, Total fertility rate, Birth rate, Sub-replacement fertility