2016•Revistas Cuadernos de Trabajo de Estudios Regionales en Economía Población y DesarrolloOpen access

A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay

Pablo Galaso, Sandra López

Abstract

This study estimates a composite leading business cycle indicator for the Uruguayan economy following the methodology of The Conference Board. Prediction is based on the analysis of multiple series that have a leading relationship to the Industrial Production Index, which is used as the reference variable of the overall economic activity. Once selected, these series are aggregated into a single composite indicator. Our index covers a 20-year period (from 1994 to 2013). It includes variables covering diverse aspects of economic activity and reaches to advance the two turning points occurred in Uruguay during that period

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Key concepts: Industrial production index, Composite indicator, Business cycle, Composite index, Index (typography), Economic indicator, Econometrics, Variable (mathematics)