2015•RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsRequires access

Liquidity trap and secular stagnation

Yannick Kalantzis, Kenza Benhima, Philippe Bacchetta

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Abstract

In this paper we analyze the link between the ZLB and slow growth in a model with heterogeneous agents and explicit money demand. While the model is neoclassical with small shocks, a large deleveraging shock in the spirit of Eggertsson and Krugman (2012) has permanent effects even with flexible prices. It affects supply rather than demand and implies a long-term decrease in potential output and an increase in cash holding. The basic reason is that in a liquidity trap, saving is allocated to cash rather than physical capital. With short-term price stickiness, monetary policy in the form of an expansion in money supply is effective in reducing unemployment in the short-run, but not in affecting the long term output level. An increase in debt may help exiting the ZLB, but it may lower the capital stock because of higher interest rates.

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In this paper we analyze the link between the ZLB and slow growth in a model with heterogeneous agents and explicit money demand. While the model is neoclassical with small shocks, a large deleveraging shock in the spirit of Eggertsson and Krugman (2012) has permanent effects even with flexible prices. It affects supply rather than demand and implies a long-term decrease in potential output and an increase in cash holding. The basic reason is that in a liquidity trap, saving is allocated to cash rather than physical capital. With short-term price stickiness, monetary policy in the form of an expansion in money supply is effective in reducing unemployment in the short-run, but not in affecting the long term output level. An increase in debt may help exiting the ZLB, but it may lower the capital stock because of higher interest rates.

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Available abstract

In this paper we analyze the link between the ZLB and slow growth in a model with heterogeneous agents and explicit money demand. While the model is neoclassical with small shocks, a large deleveraging shock in the spirit of Eggertsson and Krugman (2012) has permanent effects even with flexible prices. It affects supply rather than demand and implies a long-term decrease in potential output and an increase in cash holding. The basic reason is that in a liquidity trap, saving is allocated to cash rather than physical capital. With short-term price stickiness, monetary policy in the form of an expansion in money supply is effective in reducing unemployment in the short-run, but not in affecting the long term output level. An increase in debt may help exiting the ZLB, but it may lower the capital stock because of higher interest rates.

Key concepts: Economics, Liquidity trap, Deleveraging, Monetary economics, Economic stagnation, Market liquidity, Monetary policy, Demand shock

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