[Look into the future of population migration in China based on land capacity].

Land carrying capacity is the number of people that can be supported by local food production resource. Migration is a process of maintaining the balance between population density and land carrying capacity. There are 10 provinces in China which can accommodate in-migrants on the basis of their population density and the potentials for increasing food production. The farm land can be increased by 1/4 from uncultivated areas in Heilongjian, Jilin, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia. Certain parts of Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and Shandong have the potential of increasing productivity. Even though population growth is high in these areas, it is still possible to accept migrants if the family planning program is well implemented. Jiangxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Hainan are provinces with a lower population density and a considerable potential for increasing food productivity. In total, the above areas may accommodate about 20 million migrants in the next 20-30 years. The areas that are under the most pressure for out-migration are low lands around water reservoirs which suffer from flooding, areas facing serious ecological crises, and areas with heavy population density and poor land. Under the current situation in which the surplus labor force in rural areas is extensive, large scale rural-rural migration is both impossible and unnecessary. Developing town centers will both alleviate population pressure in rural areas and promote the development of rural productivity. Poor rural areas where food need to be perennially imported should be considered for out-migration. Even rich areas have production limits. Population control and Migration programs should be carefully planned with consideration given to cost-benefits, cost-effectiveness, rational development of resources, and maintaining ecological balance. Policies promoting settlement of migrants need to be formulated to avoid short-term action to the detriment of the area's long-term benefit.