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2012•RePEc: Research Papers in EconomicsRequires access

Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate?

Gabe de Bondt

Open publisher page 5 citations

Abstract

Timely and accurate signals about the current state of the economy are essential for analysts. The objective of the paper is to compare the accuracy of PMI-based nowcast of current quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth with that of the flash GDP estimateIn-sample regressions for 1998Q3-2011Q1 Real-time analysis for 2003-2010 This study shows for the first time that euro area real GDP nowcasts using the PMI survey can be more accurate than Eurostat’s flash GDP estimate for extended periods of time in predicting the final GDP release.

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What this paper is about

Timely and accurate signals about the current state of the economy are essential for analysts. The objective of the paper is to compare the accuracy of PMI-based nowcast of current quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth with that of the flash GDP estimateIn-sample regressions for 1998Q3-2011Q1 Real-time analysis for 2003-2010 This study shows for the first time that euro area real GDP nowcasts using the PMI survey can be more accurate than Eurostat’s flash GDP estimate for extended periods of time in predicting the final GDP release.

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Available abstract

Timely and accurate signals about the current state of the economy are essential for analysts. The objective of the paper is to compare the accuracy of PMI-based nowcast of current quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth with that of the flash GDP estimateIn-sample regressions for 1998Q3-2011Q1 Real-time analysis for 2003-2010 This study shows for the first time that euro area real GDP nowcasts using the PMI survey can be more accurate than Eurostat’s flash GDP estimate for extended periods of time in predicting the final GDP release.

Key concepts: Nowcasting, Real gross domestic product, Quarter (Canadian coin), Index (typography), Flash (photography), Econometrics, GDP deflator, Purchasing

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Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate? — Research Paper | ScholarLens