The Relevance of the Electoral System: A Simulation of the 1992 Kenyan Election*

In the recent political transitions in Africa competitive elections have become the most critical events in the allocation of power. However, little attention has been given to the design of electoral systems, that is, the rules used to determine the allocation of parliamentary seats and of the presidential office. With few exceptions, plurality and majority systems are assumed to be the simplest, natural, and most democratic systems of converting votes into seats. This paper explores alternative electoral systems for apportioning seats in parliament and for securing the presidency. Specifically, it simulates outcomes in the 1992 Kenyan general elections using a proportional representation system in the parliamentary elections and a preferential ballot system in the presidential contest. The overriding normative goal is fair representation, especially given ethnically-driven electoral behavior. The simulations reported here offer possible outcomes that could have emerged had different electoral rules been used in the 1992 elections. Given both the data used and the conditions prevailing in the 1992 elections, the specific outcome of each simulation is valid only as a demonstration and a discussion tool.