Space Debris Population in the Geosynchronous Region After 100 Years

This paper shows a prediction of the environment in the geosynchronous region using an orbital debris environmental evolutionary model. We conducted three projection scenarios with changing the number of disposed satellites. The results of projections indicate that explosions of spacecraft and rocket upper stages form the origin of the orbiting fragments. Therefore, actions to reduce the explosions of the spacecraft and the rocket upper stages are effective for preserving the environment of the geosynchronous orbit. The collisions predicted in the baseline scenario are less than those in the non-disposal scenario.