Deer populations up, hunter populations down: Implications of interdependence of deer and hunter population dynamics on management

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are managed to yield diverse impacts, including effects to ecosystems. Many conventional hunting systems manage deer abundance through rules that strive to produce recreation opportunities and an equitable distribution of antlered bucks among hunters. To protect against excessive harvests, antlerless deer harvests often are regulated through quotas. This approach is effective when deer productivity does not outstrip capacity of the hunter population to harvest required numbers of antlerless deer. In many areas of North America, abundance of white-tailed deer has increased dramatically in the past two decades, which has caused many wildlife managers to ask whether deer populations can be controlled with conventional harvest strategies. We used population reconstruction modeling to simulate deer populations from mixed hardwood forests in southern New York, determined antlerless deer harvests needed to stabilize or reduce populations, and evaluated whether current hunting systems can effectively achieve potential ecosystem objectives. Current hunter willingness to seek or use antlerless deer permits likely is inadequate to stabilize or reduce deer densities. This situation may be exacerbated in the future with occurrence of diseases in deer or other factors that diminish hunter participation. We discuss implications for effectiveness of ecosystem management.