2011•Swinburne figshare (Swinburne University of Technology)Requires access
Joint probability of sea levels and rainfall at Tauranga Harbour
Saima Aijaz, P.E. Hartley, P Miselis, MJ Collett, K. G. Dayananda
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Abstract
In flood management investigations, the combined effects of sea level and high rainfall are important in determining the probability of flooding in catchment areas. An understanding of the relevant variables provides a more accurate estimate of their combined probability of occurrence, and therefore permits a more efficient design of defences. Joint-probability analysis was employed to estimate tailwater levels at locations within the Tauranga Harbour, which are influenced by sea levels. The tailwater levels would then be used as design criteria for stormwater modelling of inner harbour catchments under the current climate storm conditions and future climate change scenarios. The study involved the determination of dependency relationships between storm surge and rainfall. This was done by examining long-term records of sea level and rainfall, computation of extreme events and the estimation of tailwater levels from the joint probability of sea level exceedances and extreme rainfall events for various return interval periods.