Towards an Analytical Framework for Evaluating the Impact of Technology on Future Contexts

This report provides a framework that supports the capture, classification and collation of technological trends and innovations from their earliest appearance right through to their impact on military thought, both directly, through military application, and indirectly, through impacts on the future context. The approach is centred on postulated effects-based technology concepts, determined through combinations of enabling technologies and designed against delivering required battlespace effects. Such a framework provides the capacity to identify incremental (evolutionary) trends and some truly revolutionary (disruptive) technologies that have the potential to substantially impact on future warfighting operations. It also discusses the roles of and relationships between the various participants in such a process.