DISAGGREGATE MULTIMODAL MODEL FOR WORK TRIPS IN THE NETHERLANDS

This paper describes a disaggregate modal-choice model with 6 travel modes (walking, bicycle, moped, car, bus, and train) for work trips. The data used in the study were from 2 communities adjacent to Eindhoven, Netherlands. A number of alternative model specifications were tested, and the results of these tests were analyzed. The model specification that was considered to be the most satisfactory overall is based on treating invehicle travel time as a generic variable and out-of-vehicle travel time as a series of modal-specific variables. Out-of-pocket travel costs were found to have no significant influence on modal choice. Although a number of socioeconomic variables were tried, the only ones included in the most satisfactory model were 3 vehicle-availability variables (car, moped, and bicycle). Analyses of the coefficients estimated in a number of different subsamples of the main sample showed that the marginal decreases in the standard errors of the coefficients were very small for samples containing more than 250 observations. A simple test of the most satisfactory model estimated as an aggregate predictive model indicated that effects of the theoretical problems of using a disaggregate model with aggregate data can be of suitable market stratification.