2011•Proceedings of the 34th World Congress of the International Association for Hydro- Environment Research and Engineering: 33rd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium and 10th Conference on Hydraulics in Water EngineeringRequires access
Seven Day Flow Forecasting Using Hydrological Models and Numerical Weather Prediction Rainfall Forecasts
CP Leahy, Thomas C. Pagano, JF Elliott, Soori Sooriyakumaran, Jaap Schellekens, JS Verkade
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Abstract
The Bureau of Meteorology is currently developing a 'short-term' continuous stream flow forecasting service. This service aims to improve water management by giving water managers routine forecasts of river flows for the next 7 days at key locations. Forecasts will be produced using continuous rainfall-runoff modelling in real time, with rainfall forcing provided by recorded rainfall data, as well as forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction models. To further improve the forecasts, error correction will be applied to the newly developed hydrological model (SWIFT). Estimates of the uncertainty of the forecasts using a Bayesian approach will also be produced. The forecasting system is built using Delft-FEWS framework and the initial application of this system is on the Ovens River in North Eastern Victoria. The paper will describe the main elements of the system, its operation, along with details of the forecasting performance of the system.