2015•DergiPark (Istanbul University)Open access

AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY OVER THE PERIOD OF 1950-2009

Aytaç Gökmen, Dilek Temiz

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Abstract

real GDP) by using annual time series data for the Turkish economy over the period 1950-2006. Thestudy applies a number of econometric techniques: ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vectorerror correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test.The results of this dissertation show that all the variables are stationary in the first difference. Moreover,the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of the long run relationship among the twovariables. The Granger test shows one way causality from economic growth to real net exports. Thecausality results are consistent with the results reported by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).There is a long run and also short run causality relationship between the real export and the economicgrowth. The direction of this causality is from economic growth (real GDP) to real export.

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real GDP) by using annual time series data for the Turkish economy over the period 1950-2006. Thestudy applies a number of econometric techniques: ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vectorerror correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test.The results of this dissertation show that all the variables are stationary in the first difference. Moreover,the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of the long run relationship among the twovariables. The Granger test shows one way causality from economic growth to real net exports. Thecausality results are consistent with the results reported by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).There is a long run and also short run causality relationship between the real export and the economicgrowth. The direction of this causality is from economic growth (real GDP) to real export.

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Available abstract

real GDP) by using annual time series data for the Turkish economy over the period 1950-2006. Thestudy applies a number of econometric techniques: ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vectorerror correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test.The results of this dissertation show that all the variables are stationary in the first difference. Moreover,the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of the long run relationship among the twovariables. The Granger test shows one way causality from economic growth to real net exports. Thecausality results are consistent with the results reported by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).There is a long run and also short run causality relationship between the real export and the economicgrowth. The direction of this causality is from economic growth (real GDP) to real export.

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