Cyclical Instability in the U.S. Dairy Industry without Government Regulations

Simulations of the U.S. dairy industry under a variety of conditions indicate that milk price variability would be considerably greater in the absence of price supports. Milk production would also be more variable, but significantly less than would milk prices. Summary statistics for the 1955-78 period, however, indicate that, in the absence of pricing programs, milk prices would have varied no more than did prices for corn, wheat, or hogs. A long-term price-production cycle does not appear to be inherent in the dairy industry.