Modeling the Default Probabilities of Russian Banks: Extended Abillities

Using binary choice logistic regression with quasi panel data (1998-2011) to develop a probability of default model for Russian banks we have found that: 1) there is a quadratic interaction between bank's capital adequacy ratio and its default probability; 2) there is a negative relationship between the bank's monopoly power and its PD; 3) macroeconomic, institutional and time factors significantly improve the model quality. We believe that these results will be useful for national financial regulatory authorities as well as for commercial banks in risk management.