RISK OF INUNDATION CAUSED BY SEA LEVEL RISE ALONG THE BULGARIAN BLACK SEA COAST

Over recent decades the increased frequency of natural hazards resulting from global climate change has become one of the most severe problems affecting the sustainability of the coastal zone. In particular, low -lying areas which are strongly affected by flooding pose the most serious consequences for the functions of coastal systems and public safety. Such areas are also most attractive and productive environments both for settlements and human activities because they offer great variety of possibilities for better livelihoods, easy access to the sea, and wide and vast beaches. These settings make even more important the efforts to identify coastal areas with high priority of risks to sea flooding. Sea level rise along the Bulgarian Black Sea coast up to 1 m could cause damages on 7% of the territory and population of the coastal settlements. Sea level rise up to 5 m could cause damages on 21% of the territory and 16% of the population of the coastal settlements. Expected damages in residential area caused by inundation of 1 m would amount to 33% of territory and 42% of population from those affected by inundation of 5 m. As the most risks zones are defined the territories around of the towns of Varna, Burgas, Balchik, Pomorie and Nessebar, Kamchia river region, Sunny beach and Albena resorts. Totally, between 40 and 97 thousand local residence could be affected and between 9 and 27 square km of settlements inundated in case of different scenarios. Although the probability of casualties due to extreme storms is quite high, in actual fact the economic losses in terms of hotel, transport and other infrastructure damages are predominant. As a result of such events the economy of a small municipality like Nessebar will be greatly affected due to its high dependence on the tourist industry. Therefore, many potential users and institutions interested in sustainable development, including local government, civil protection authorities, stakeholders, coastal decision makers and community would benefit from the results obtained for coastal hazards to elaborate appropriate mitigation measures and adaptation policies.