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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for Morocco

Anas Mossadak

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Abstract

In this study we estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model using Bayesian \ntechniques to analyse the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in Morocco. The results suggest that a positive \nmonetary policy shock generates a diminution of consumption, investment, output and inflation. A positive \nshock on government expenditures produces an increase in output and wage but generates also a decrease in \nprivate consumption and investment due to an increase in inflation and interest rate. Finally, a positive shock \non capital tax produces a decrease in investment and thus in output. In general, the duration of monetary \nshock is shorter than fiscal shock; the first vanishes in about 10 quarters and the latter is more persistent and \nlasts more than 15 quarters.

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In this study we estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model using Bayesian \ntechniques to analyse the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in Morocco. The results suggest that a positive \nmonetary policy shock generates a diminution of consumption, investment, output and inflation. A positive \nshock on government expenditures produces an increase in output and wage but generates also a decrease in \nprivate consumption and investment due to an increase in inflation and interest rate. Finally, a positive shock \non capital tax produces a decrease in investment and thus in output. In general, the duration of monetary \nshock is shorter than fiscal shock; the first vanishes in about 10 quarters and the latter is more persistent and \nlasts more than 15 quarters.

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Available abstract

In this study we estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model using Bayesian \ntechniques to analyse the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in Morocco. The results suggest that a positive \nmonetary policy shock generates a diminution of consumption, investment, output and inflation. A positive \nshock on government expenditures produces an increase in output and wage but generates also a decrease in \nprivate consumption and investment due to an increase in inflation and interest rate. Finally, a positive shock \non capital tax produces a decrease in investment and thus in output. In general, the duration of monetary \nshock is shorter than fiscal shock; the first vanishes in about 10 quarters and the latter is more persistent and \nlasts more than 15 quarters.

Key concepts: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Economics, Shock (circulatory), Monetary economics, Fiscal policy, Inflation (cosmology), Consumption (sociology), Monetary policy

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