Preferences for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles of Lease Car Drivers in the Netherlands

In this paper we aim to get insight into preferences of Dutch lease car drivers for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and their characteristics. Since AFVs are either not yet available on the market or have only very limited market shares, we have to rely on stated preference research. We perform a state-of-the-art conjoint analysis, based on data obtained through an online choice experiment among Dutch lease car drivers. Results show that under current tax regulations the average lease car driver is indifferent between the conventional technology, flexifuel and the hybrid car, while negative preferences exist for the plug-in hybrid, the electric and the fuel cell car. When current tax regulations would be abolished, strong negative preferences would result for all AFV’s, and especially for the electric and fuel cell car. Increases in driving range, reductions in refuelling time, and reductions in additional detour time for reaching an appropriate fuel station, increase AFV preferences substantially. On average the gap between conventional technologies and AFVs remains large, however. We also find that there is considerable heterogeneity in preferences of lease car drivers, and that various market segments and potential early adopters can be identified. In this respect the most interesting finding is that preferences for electric and fuel cell cars decrease substantially, and willingness to pay for driving range increases substantially, when annual mileage increases. Annual mileage also has a substantial impact on sensitivity to monthly costs. We therefore use simulations to assess market shares of electric and fuel cell cars for different annual mileage categories. We find that people with a relatively low annual mileage are more likely to adopt than people with a relatively high annual mileage, regardless of driving range and monthly costs. For the fuel cell car we find similar results, although when driving range is high and cost differences are large, lease car drivers with a high annual mileage appear more likely to adopt a fuel cell car than those with a relatively low annual mileage.