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2011•Influenza and Other Respiratory VirusesRequires access

Proof of principle for an immunological model to explain mortality variations over the three waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic

John D. Mathews, Dora C. Pearce, Kirsty J. Bolton, Jodie McVernon, James M. McCaw

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Abstract

During the early phases of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Italy, real-time modeling analysis were conducted in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic. In order to evalu- ate the results obtained by the model we compared simu- lated epidemics to the estimated number of influenza-like illness (ILI) collected by the Italian sentinel surveillance system (INFLUNET), showing a good agreement with the timing of the observed epidemic. By assuming in the model mitigation measures implemented in Italy, the peak was expected on week 44 (95% CI: 44, 45). Results were consis- tent with the INFLUNET data showing that the peak in Italy was reached in week 46. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy makers for planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic.

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What this paper is about

During the early phases of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Italy, real-time modeling analysis were conducted in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic. In order to evalu- ate the results obtained by the model we compared simu- lated epidemics to the estimated number of influenza-like illness (ILI) collected by the Italian sentinel surveillance system (INFLUNET), showing a good agreement with the timing of the observed epidemic. By assuming in the model mitigation measures implemented in Italy, the peak was expected on week 44 (95% CI: 44, 45). Results were consis- tent with the INFLUNET data showing that the peak in Italy was reached in week 46. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy makers for planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic.

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Available abstract

During the early phases of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Italy, real-time modeling analysis were conducted in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic. In order to evalu- ate the results obtained by the model we compared simu- lated epidemics to the estimated number of influenza-like illness (ILI) collected by the Italian sentinel surveillance system (INFLUNET), showing a good agreement with the timing of the observed epidemic. By assuming in the model mitigation measures implemented in Italy, the peak was expected on week 44 (95% CI: 44, 45). Results were consis- tent with the INFLUNET data showing that the peak in Italy was reached in week 46. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy makers for planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic.

Key concepts: Pandemic, Influenza pandemic, H1n1 pandemic, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Public health interventions, Epidemic model, Pandemic influenza, Public health

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Proof of principle for an immunological model to explain mortality variations over the three waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic — Research Paper | ScholarLens