POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS IN ENDANGERED SPECIES RECOVERY PLANS: PAST USE AND FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS

Using the results of a survey of recovery plans for threatened and endangered species, we evaluated the role that Population Viability Analysis (PVA) has played in recovery planning and management of rare species in the United States. Although there was a significant increase over time in the percentage of plans presenting information on PVA and assigning recovery tasks to collect more such information, the use of PVA was still called for in less than half of the plans approved since 1991. Because scarcity of data for rare species may be limiting the application of PVA to endangered species, we also assessed how often recovery plans proposed to collect the full complement of data required to perform four general types of PVA. For most of the species in the database, proposed monitoring data would allow the simplest type of PVA method (i.e., analysis of total population counts) to be applied, but more complex PVAs would be possible for <25% of the species. We conclude with brief recommendations for how the use of PVA in endangered species recovery planning might be improved in the future.