Evolution Modeling and Simulation on Traffic Structure in Urban Areas Based on the Nested-Logit Model

The Nested-Logit model is one of the classical theory for transport modes selection studies. The paper compares and analysis on the travel modes, conducts the research on the travel modes with the Nested-Logit theory, considering the current data in Harbin, analysis on the sharing rate changing trends of various transport modes, in the condition of different travel distance and VOT, the results showed that: the public nest is still the main choice, as the travel distance increasing, the sharing rate of conventional bus and metro show a increasing trend, while of the walking, cycling and taxi show a downward trend, the private car showed a decreased trend after increasing; as the VOT increasing, which of the public nest and private car increased slightly, while the non-motorized nest showed a decreased trend; as the time preference factor increasing, the conventional bus and private car has dropped obviously, in the condition of low VOT and short travel distance, the sharing rate of walking has increased obviously.