Estimating carbon emissions from forest degradation: implications of uncertainties and area sizes for a REDD+ MRV system

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the mechanism Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) has become an important option to create a financial value for the carbon stored in forests by reducing the emissions from forested lands. Thus far, many studies deal with the detectability of emissions resulting from deforestation. This study concentrates on the emissions and emission reductions from forest degradation. We show, based on data from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization’s (FAO) Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010, the influence of uncertainties aligned to the estimation of emission reductions from forest degradation. On the example of three countries representing small to large forest areas and low to high carbon stocks, three different approaches for the inclusion of the uncertainties of estimates for two periods are analyzed. Furthermore, by simulating different sizes of areas where forest degradation takes place, the sensitivity of the estimated emission reductions with respect to the size of these areas is shown. The results of the study highlight the importance of identifying sound options of including uncertainties for different periods into a Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system to avoid windfall profits from REDD. Moreover, it is demonstrated that an as accurate as possible identification of the areas where forest degradation takes place is decisive for the amount of REDD benefits achievable for a country.