Source characteristics of hypothetical subduction earthquakes in the northwestern United States

Historic earthquake sequences on subduction zones that are similar to the Cascadia subduction zone are used to hypothesize the nature of shallow subduction earthquakes that might occur in the northwestern United States. Based on systematic comparisons of several physical characteristics, including physiography and seismicity, subduction zones that are deemed most similar to the Cascadia subduction zone are those in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia. These zones have all experienced very large earthquake sequences, and if the Cascadia subduction zone is also capable of storing elastic strain energy along its greater than 1000 km length, then earthquakes of very large size (M_w > 8 1/2) must be considered. Circumstantial evidence is presented that suggests (but does not prove) that large subduction earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone may have an average repeat time of 400 to 500 yr.