An investigation into the effects of ENSO on European weather

This study looks at the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Europe in terms of its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and European precipitation and temperature anomalies. In order to do this secondary data is collected and then analysed using statistical methods. Regression analysis is employed to explore the relationship between the NAO index and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), discovering weak teleconnections in August and December, followed by the exploration of SOI-European weather relations during summer and winter which determines very few straightforward associations. Links between the NAO and European weather are investigated, finding strong relationships in winter. Significant differences are exhibited in the results of t-tests between cold and warm events for European temperature but not precipitation, and changes in the north Atlantic storm track are discussed to provide an explanation for the stronger associations observed between the NAO and precipitation during La Nina years than El Nino. Substantial amounts of non-stationarity are revealed over the 20th century, highlighting the need for extensive further study before forecasting of European weather using ENSO becomes possible.