OUTLOOK OF THE WORLD RICE INDUSTRY UNDER ALTERNATIVE TRADE LIBERALIZATION POLICIES IN JAPAN AND KOREA

This report evaluates the world rice industry for the 1998-2010 period by using the World Rice Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, the weather, and technological change. This report evaluates three scenarios: the base scenario, the partial trade liberalization scenario in Japan and South Korea, and the full trade liberalization scenario. The partial trade liberalization scenario includes a partial liberalization of rice imports in Japan and South Korea from the year completing the minimum market access commitments under the UR agreement to 2010. The full trade liberalization scenario includes a full liberalization of rice imports in Japan and South Korea from the year completing the minimum market access commitments under the UR agreement to 2010 in Japan and 2014 in South Korea. Both trade liberalization scenarios result in higher world rice price for both japonica and indica rice and lower domestic rice price and production in both Japan and South Korea.