2013ScienceAsiaOpen access

Confidence intervals for multivariate value at risk

Yann Ling Goh, A. H. Pooi

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Abstract

Confidence intervals for the γ-quantile of a linear combination of N non-normal variates with a linear dependence structure would be useful to the financial institutions as the intervals enable the accuracy of the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio of investments to be quantified.Here we construct 100(1 -α)% confidence intervals for the γ-quantile using procedures based on bootstrap, normal approximation and hypothesis testing.We show that the method based on hypothesis testing produces a confidence interval which is more satisfactory than those found by using bootstrap or normal approximation.

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Confidence intervals for the γ-quantile of a linear combination of N non-normal variates with a linear dependence structure would be useful to the financial institutions as the intervals enable the accuracy of the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio of investments to be quantified.Here we construct 100(1 -α)% confidence intervals for the γ-quantile using procedures based on bootstrap, normal approximation and hypothesis testing.We show that the method based on hypothesis testing produces a confidence interval which is more satisfactory than those found by using bootstrap or normal approximation.

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Available abstract

Confidence intervals for the γ-quantile of a linear combination of N non-normal variates with a linear dependence structure would be useful to the financial institutions as the intervals enable the accuracy of the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio of investments to be quantified.Here we construct 100(1 -α)% confidence intervals for the γ-quantile using procedures based on bootstrap, normal approximation and hypothesis testing.We show that the method based on hypothesis testing produces a confidence interval which is more satisfactory than those found by using bootstrap or normal approximation.

Key concepts: Confidence interval, Quantile, Robust confidence intervals, Multivariate statistics, Value at risk, Statistics, Mathematics, Econometrics

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