How Do TrenDs in women's Labor Force acTiviTy anD marriage PaTTerns aFFecT sociaL securiTy rePLacemenT raTes?

This article examines how women's increased labor force participation, increased earnings, and reduced marriage rates affect Social Security replacement rates over time. Based on data from the Health and Retirement Study and Modeling Income in the Near Term, our estimates show that Social Security replacement rates have dropped sharply at both the household and individual levels, and the declines will continue for future retirees. We also find that this aggregate change masks a complex relationship between replacement rates and the marital status and income levels of individuals. The decline in replacement rates over time is largest for married couples with husbands having higher earnings. Increases in the labor force activity and earnings of women explain more than one-third of the change. By contrast, the impact of changing marital patterns is relatively small. Changes to the full retirement age and the timing of benefit claiming explain much of the remaining decline.