A Forecast Model of Urban Passenger Flow Containing New Railway Project

The urban passenger flow forecast is an important part of urban traffic planning. The urban passenger flow forecast containing the new railway project is much different from the common passenger flow forecast. The difficult is ascertaining the share rate of the railway passenger flow. Traditionally, the share rate is a fixed constant based on the experience of the cities which have already run the railway project. However, this way is not enough sure. In the paper, a split model on the railway has been built, which has based on the analysis of the influence scope of railway and the influence on urban passenger traffic volume of railway (e.g. the traffic model choice). Additionally, in the model, a variable like the cosine function (coming from SP investigation of wuhu) denotes the railway passenger flow share rate, which reflects that the railway passenger traffic volume varies with distance. Finally, the model is used to forecast the urban passenger volume involving the new railway project of Wuhu urban comprehensive transportation planning (WUCTP), and attains practical opportunity well.