Predicting Attrition: A Test of Alternative Approaches

The history of predicting premature attrition, that is, losses before the completion of the first-term of military service, dates back at least to the early 1960s. At that time, researchers in the Navy, Army, and Air Force found that the best pre-service predictors of premature attrition were, in order, level of education, mental ability, and age. The multiple correlation of these three predictors with various measures of attrition was about .35 for all three services. In-service measures of performance and ratings of behavior increased the predictability of attrition, but they could not be used for screening out potential recruits who were high loss risks. Personality tests have also been related to premature attrition with varying degrees of success, but they must be specially administered to applicants if they are to be used for screening purposes.