Toward Air Traffic Complexity Assessment in New Generation Air Traffic Management Systems

The characterization of complex air traffic situations is an important issue in air traffic management (ATM). Within the current ground-based ATM system, complexity metrics have been introduced with the goal of evaluating the difficulty experienced by air traffic controllers in guaranteeing the appropriate aircraft separation in a sector. The rapid increase in air travel demand calls for new generation ATM systems that can safely and efficiently handle higher levels of traffic. To this purpose, part of the responsibility for separation maintenance will be delegated to the aircraft, and trajectory management functions will be further automated and distributed. The evolution toward an autonomous aircraft framework envisages new tasks where assessing complexity may be valuable and requires a whole new perspective in the definition of suitable complexity metrics. This paper presents a critical analysis of the existing approaches for modeling and predicting air traffic complexity, examining their portability to autonomous ATM systems. Possible applications and related requirements will be discussed.