Decision trees to assess the risk of cereal aphid (Hemiptera: Aphididae) outbreaks in summer in England

Abstract Recent studies on the ecology of two cereal aphid species, Sitobion avenae (F.) and Metopolophium dirhodum (Wlk.), are reviewed. The most important factors affecting their abundance were used to construct decision trees to assess the risk of outbreaks of these species in the summer in England. These factors for S. avenae were crop sowing date, the size of the autumn migration, the severity of the winter, the size of the spring migration and the incidence of natural enemies in spring and early summer. For M. dirhodum, only the last two factors were considered as it does not occur on cereals until the spring in England. These decision trees were successfully tested using field data from 1983, when no outbreaks of either species occurred due to the effects of natural enemies.