Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when?

BACKGROUND: In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007. METHODS: A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation. RESULTS: The results suggest that Australia's smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020.