Morphodynamic modelling for the entire German Bight: an initial study on model sensitivity and uncertainty

Abstract. Morphodynamic modelling of coastal seas and estuaries for large-scale and long-term applications is strongly affected by parameter sensitivity of process-based models. Moreover, the comparison of data-based methods with numerical model results is limited by uncertainties in measurements. These drawbacks can be partly overcome by a multi-model approach (MMA). In a case study to assess long-term sediment transport and morphodynamic processes for the German Bight, the AufMod research project applies two different methods for process-based modelling: UnTRIM-SediMorph and DELFT3D. Model sensitivity is illustrated in terms of different morphological changes for diverse porosity values. As a first step, discrepancies between individual methods are shown based on resulting sediment transport patterns.