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2011•Australian Veterinary JournalRequires access

Evaluating the effectiveness of the response to equine influenza in the Australian outbreak and the potential role of early vaccination

M.G. Garner, B. Cowled, I.J. East, Barbara Moloney, Nina Kung

Open publisher page 16 citations

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To use modelling and epidemiological analyses to assess the effectiveness of control strategies employed during the equine influenza outbreak and determine if early vaccination might have had a beneficial effect. METHODS: Transmission of infection was modelled using stochastic, spatial simulation, based on data from 16 regions in New South Wales and Queensland over the first month of the outbreak. RESULTS: The model accurately represented the spread of infection in both space and time and showed that vaccination strategies would have reduced new infections by ∼60% and reduced the size of the infected area by 8-9%, compared to the non-vaccination baseline. CONCLUSION: When used in conjunction with biosecurity measures and movement controls, early vaccination could play an important role in the containment and eradication of equine influenza.

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What this paper is about

OBJECTIVE: To use modelling and epidemiological analyses to assess the effectiveness of control strategies employed during the equine influenza outbreak and determine if early vaccination might have had a beneficial effect. METHODS: Transmission of infection was modelled using stochastic, spatial simulation, based on data from 16 regions in New South Wales and Queensland over the first month of the outbreak. RESULTS: The model accurately represented the spread of infection in both space and time and showed that vaccination strategies would have reduced new infections by ∼60% and reduced the size of the infected area by 8-9%, compared to the non-vaccination baseline. CONCLUSION: When used in conjunction with biosecurity measures and movement controls, early vaccination could play an important role in the containment and eradication of equine influenza.

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Available abstract

OBJECTIVE: To use modelling and epidemiological analyses to assess the effectiveness of control strategies employed during the equine influenza outbreak and determine if early vaccination might have had a beneficial effect. METHODS: Transmission of infection was modelled using stochastic, spatial simulation, based on data from 16 regions in New South Wales and Queensland over the first month of the outbreak. RESULTS: The model accurately represented the spread of infection in both space and time and showed that vaccination strategies would have reduced new infections by ∼60% and reduced the size of the infected area by 8-9%, compared to the non-vaccination baseline. CONCLUSION: When used in conjunction with biosecurity measures and movement controls, early vaccination could play an important role in the containment and eradication of equine influenza.

Key concepts: Equine influenza, Vaccination, Outbreak, Biosecurity, Transmission (telecommunications), Medicine, Epidemiology, Virology

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